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NL HOLD'EM CASH
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This nit shouldn't have KQ either, unless it's precisely KQhh. Now on to the real question How much do we bet OTR? Shoving doesn't seem good, as river should be a scarecard for villains range unless it completes his KQ. So go like and probably fold to his jam. I know this seems sucky, but this guy is never bluffing there.
But probably a fold as well. Originally Posted by Barry Urinstein. Last edited by BlueCollarPoker; at I am making assumptions on what seems likely and I don't think it's likely he has JJ because that would be incredibly awful beyond belief.
Also, even if he has JJ, we should still bet river vs. And he's only partly trying to be tricky with QQ-AA, the other part is scared of getting raised OTF, because he knows this board smashes our range. And he also never EVER has And checking turn behind is godawful for obvious reasons!
He also never ever has Why would he check call turn with JJ on such a super wet board? I probably overcomplicate things but it's a pretty confusing spot nontheless. Bearing this in mind, this is actually really really bad for him no? No way you want to give away a free card on a board this wet, and apart from that, you miss a whole street of value vs a pretty strongish range the hands I continue with on this flop.
He calls with worse just so much more often than JJ or KQ. If you do you still don't know if he had JJ or KQ, and this hand tells a lot how he plays his strong draws or his nuthands. If you bet-fold you have no information. Although the sample size is small so its tough to tell whether he is a nit because if he is opening so wide in MP then theres a good chance that he isnt and his opening range is a lot wider than people are giving him credit for.
Only problem with that is we dont want him to just flat with the hands we have crushed that he may call a larger bet with.
And if he shows up with a set or straight in this spot i make a note and move on. I think his range is mostly: If he shoves it's a nasty spot, but I still think his shoving range there has some stuff you beat the busted flush draw, for example. Needing to be good only about 1 in 4 times, so I'd sigh-call there. As most probably know I've been running ridiculously bad since January and pretty much question my every move, so apart from being genuinely confused about this hand I was also wondering how he could possibly show up with the 1 hand I pretty much never expected to see here.
Why didn't you expect JJ? The way he played it looks somewhat normal for quite a few people I see on micro tables waiting to spring a huge bet on river. I wouldn't question yourself about getting it in set over set.
Did you pause in this hand our auto shove the river?